Each year forecasters start making their bets for the hurricane season early. The earliest forecasts come out in March-April and are generally updated every 4-8 weeks.

We’re still months away from the peak of hurricane season (September 10th), but we have already seen 3 named storms. Seasonal forecasts are calling for an average of 17 (39% higher than average) named storms, of which, 8.4 (+31%) are hurricanes of which 4 (+49%) are major hurricanes. Remember, forecasting skill this far out is generally low, and the relationship between Atlantic hurricane activity and US Hurricane loss is weak, but we can listen to the agreement among forecasters (strong) and the direction of forecasts (high).

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